Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias influences both our perceptions about what has already happened, as well as our predictions of what has yet to occur. Confirmation bias, also referred to as perceptions and predictions, also have the ability to generate their own confirmations. Overconfidence has been known to initiate the development of confirmation bias.

Overconfidence begins with the lack of knowledge regarding a particular topic or task, at the same time expressing much knowledge of it. If an overconfident person were asked to rank their knowledge of a task or operation in which they actually no nothing about, that person would respond with resounding affirmation of knowing they can complete the task being discussed. However, overconfidence stems from an ignorance of what a particular task or operation actually consists of to be completed successfully. Sometimes, a person's imagination leads us astray into a false level of confidence, at the same time remembering times when we may have 'almost' been right.

People often experience both selective memory and selective hearing. Most can remember things they want to remember as opposed to true details of certain events which took place. At times, we tell ourselves that are reasons for some of our sub-conscious actions. According to the text, the 'intellectual' conceit is apparent in our judgment of past knowledge, and extends to the most current knowledge, as well as predictions of future behavior (p. 72). Our past may have not been so great and mistakes were made, however we have more positive expectations for our future endevors, whether they be professional performance, managing relationships, and following through with lifestyle changes. Our text also states that 'the construction of positive memories will brighten our recollections' (p. 77). I strongly believe that in us doing so, helps us develop enough intellectual deceit to become overconfident which in turn leads to bias, but also this inherited trait causes us to recall suppressed memories of thoughts, intentions, or actions, in such a negative way that it brings to light more of our perceptions and possibly draw a type confirmation of our biases.

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